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Cycles & Pattern in the Markets
There are many types of business cycles including those that impact the stock market.1
In his book The Next Great Bubble Boom, Guna, a Harvard graduate and Fortune 100 consultant, outlines several cycles that have specific relevance to the stock market.2 Some of these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
The major cycles of the stock market include:
The four-year presidential cycle in theUS.
Annualseasonality, also known as Sell in May or the Halloween indicator3
The “January effect“4
The lunar cycle5
The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle6
Investment advisor Mark Hulbert has tracked the long-term performance of Norman Fosback’s a Seasonality Timing System that combines month-end and holiday-based buy/sell rules. According to Hulbert, this system has been able to outperform the market with significantly less risk.7
According to Stan Weinstein there are four stages in a major cycle of stocks, stock sectors or the stock market as a whole. These four stages are (1) consolidation or base building (2) upward advancement (3) culmination (4) decline.8
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